Neutrinos, Italian downgrades and Bing losses

This was a rather eventful week and I have quite a few links to share. The biggest news of course was the researchers at Cern finding that Neutrinos travel at a speed faster than light, and if proven correct – this is said to have a major impact on Physics.

I have absolutely no idea how you send particles through rocks, or how you measure that something arrived 60 billionth of a second earlier than it’s meant to, but it still feels quite exciting!

Going back to the beginning of the week – Italy was downgraded by S&P and that added to the confusion and uncertainty already prevalent in the financial markets which culminated in some pretty big falls across the board this week.

The fall was not limited to stocks as commodities saw a sharp sell off as well. Nickel plunged 11%, silver fell 12%, gold fell 5%, and Copper fell 7% on Thursday / Friday.

This sell off was not averted even though the US Fed announced a scheme called Operation Twist which I frankly don’t understand what it does, but it’s meant to boost the economy somehow.

While all this is depressing, it’s probably not as depressing as losing a billion dollars a quarter – which is what Microsoft’s Bing does every quarter.

Despite all this Roger Nusbaum says you shouldn’t freak out, and I agree. Here is an excerpt.

If I say to you that “markets correct downward every so often and sometimes these can be fast and quick moves that scare people but markets and the stocks that comprise markets come back at some rate of speed and that the decline will not wipe you out,” what would you do with that?

If the S&P 500 was at 1550 and everyone was feeling pretty good then most people would say that “well of course the market goes down 20% now and then, the volatility is just fine.” Now as the market feels like it is down a lot people tend to forget the rational voice the knows markets do go down as they are now.

A speech by Deepak Mohanty, Executive Director, RBI on the recent inflation in India – a very good read to act as a refresher on what’s happened on the inflation front in the last 2 years, and RBI thinking during this time.

Finally, something really positive to end a gloomy week.

Enjoy your weekend!

Donkey ambulances, powerful cities and twin suns

This week I read a very interesting story about the potential use of donkey ambulances in Afghanistan, and the story touched upon how people in rich countries donate stuff to under developed countries that aren’t really suitable for them, and despite all good intentions – the efforts and money go waste. There are several inexpensive examples of useful technology in the article, and I loved some of the innovative thinking talked about there.

Next up, this slideshow of the 25 economically most powerful cities in the world. You would have guessed either Tokyo or New York to be top, and you would have been correct, you would have expected a healthy sprinkling of Chinese cities and you would have been correct there too, but you probably wouldn’t have thought Seoul is number 10 and there’s not even a single Indian city in there.

By now you have probably read of the discovery of the planet with two suns, and also of the popular Star Wars image the discovery evokes. Brilliant and beautiful.

Back on earth, Hemant writes about 15 kinds of risk you could face in your investment, CA club writes about reverse mortgages, and Roger Nusbaum contemplates how many funds should a portfolio have.

And finally, here is something relevant with the recent petrol price hikes.

Enjoy your weekend!

Solar Charkhas, Informational Society and Paid News

I’ll start this post with one of the most thought provoking things I read this week. Fred Wilson is one of the leading VCs in the US, and he wrote a post titled What is going on? on Monday and gave a brief and hard hitting explanation on what’s wrong with the economy in the US, and why aren’t there more jobs being created there.

Although the post is written from a US perspective, what he describes is applicable to every single country in the world.

The first point is about entitlements in a system that make the costs so huge that it makes it impossible for the company or even the industry to operate profitably. I’ll come back to this point later in this post because it ties to something that may happen soon.

The second point is about the transformation of the current system from an industrial society to an informational society. I’ve written earlier how India moved from agriculture to services, and missed the industrial phase in between which is what almost all economies go through, but it’s the first time that it’s occurred to me that it’s probably because of the times we are in, and may not even be needed for India. I’ve always thought that until there is a strong manufacturing base, the millions below the digital divide can never be brought up to par, but maybe that’s not needed in the 21st century?

Getting back to the first point about entitlements – Ajay Shah wrote a post this week titled Reversal of Reforms in NPS? about the possibility of making the NPS a guaranteed returns scheme – this ties back amazingly well to Fred Wilson’s point about having systems that have such high inherent costs that they can never be profitable.

Making the NPS a guaranteed returns scheme is a bad idea, and this Mint Editorial does a great job at explaining why.

So in fact India may be creating a problem that US is currently dealing with!

On to personal finance – Hemant discusses 10 financial planning rules of thumb.

The Hoot on paid news in the Times of India. Apparently, TOI doesn’t mind republishing an entire story from 2008 without any updates if they have a fine print disclaimer telling you that it is from 2008!

BusinessWeek on how a Pakistani tech whiz has created a supremely useful service that can send a text message to thousands of people at one go. It’s a simple technology that’s relevant and useful to their situation today.

Finally, PIB reports that Khadi and Village Industries Commission in collaboration with Gandhi Gramodyog Urja Vikas Sanstha has developed Solar Charkhas.

Enjoy your weekend!

Cancer sniffing dogs, new species of sharks and wooden iPads

Before I start this week I want to say that I’ve shared a lot of these over Twitter and Facebook already, so I’m sorry about the repetition that some of you may see. It’s just that I think that there are a lot more email subscribers so it outweighs the repetition that some of you may see.

But in any case, I’ll start off with a link that I haven’t yet shared – this is about dogs that can detect cancer just by sniffing a person’s breath. I was quite fascinated by the idea, and the article said that there have been earlier cases of dogs sniffing out cancer as well, but scientists are still some time away before turning it into a process that can be used at a scale.

Next up, scientists discover a new species of shark in a fish market in Taiwan! Apparently, this happens a lot more than you would imagine. Quite interesting!

Now, moving on to the economy – I enjoyed this piece in the NYT titled India measures itself against a China that doesn’t notice. The story talks about how Indians talk “endlessly” about China, but how India finds very little mention in China. That’s not really surprising, and is human behavior at all levels.

Talking of human behavior – Ranjan Varma writes about Psychology and Education and wonders why there is so much difference between rational decisions and automatic financial behavior.

I don’t know why that is, but thinking rationally for a few minutes would have saved this woman $180 who bought a wooden iPad from a McDonald’s parking lot.

Aditya shared this interesting article about speculation in food commodities and its impact on far flung places.

Finally, Hemant on understanding gears in investment vehicles.

Enjoy your weekend!

Bionic Hand, Vanishing Trees and Polished Chauffeurs

First up, here is a video about a very meaningful technology that’s amazing, as well as heart warming.

The bionic hand works using electronic signals from the ending of the hand, and you can see from the video that the technology works quite well.

Like any breakthrough, it’s expensive, but it’s only a matter of time when the cost goes down, and it becomes more accessible.

Watch the video, it’s quite incredible.

Next up, this news story about a Chinese military propaganda video accidentally showing some footage of launching cyber – warfare against US universities got quite popular this week. But I don’t think anyone was shocked hearing this because of what had happened with the Gmail hacks earlier this year.

On to something completely different now, a few weeks ago I linked to a story about a research firm called Muddy Waters coming out with a report about a Chinese company called Sino Forest basically accusing it of fraud.

Today, it’s shares were suspended in Canada, and the stock fell over 70% in the US. Muddy Waters did some research and shorted the stock, and must have made some really good money on it. Here is the Bloomberg story on it.

An interesting aspect about this is that billionaire hedge funder John Paulson used to be a big investor in this stock, and lost a lot of money in it. He sold all his stake after the report came out, but I would have thought that billionaires had better tools than the ordinary public to sniff out frauds.

On that topic – WSJ reports that John Paulson’s losses continue this week, and one of his funds have lost about 38% this year.

A finishing school for Indian drivers – isn’t that an interesting idea? Rich Indians need chauffeurs who don’t eat raw onions, can control their anger, and that sounds like a great business opportunity.

Finally, Hemant on a new product called Reliance SIP Insure.

Enjoy your weekend!

Print Solar Cells, Stanford Prison Experiments and Accidental Insurance

First off, let’s start with the most amazing thing I learned this week – MIT researchers have found a way to print solar cells on paper!

Now, isn’t that something – apparently it could already be done, but the new method is much better than the old one. They need special room, and equipment of course, but can then print the solar cells on any paper – even a newspaper!

Now, before you get too excited and start hunting for companies that make solar cells, let me temper you down with an article about a solar cell company – Evergreen Solar Cells declaring bankruptcy.

I wish every cool idea made money, but it doesn’t.

Something a little gloomy – The Stanford Prison Experiment – when I read about this the first time – I wasn’t sure if it really happened, or what sense to make of it. It’s a pretty impressive study, and the results truly surprised me.

Now, something more practical – Hemant has a great article on accidental insurance.

Chartered Club on how to save taxes by forming a HUF.

Value Research answers a reader’s question about reducing debt or investing money.

Economist asks if a country like India which is thinking of setting up its own international aid agency, should receive foreign aid.

Finally, here is an hour long interview of Warren Buffet where he talks about taxes, economy, housing, America’s AAA rating downgrade and others.

Enjoy your weekend!

Market panics, decoupling and Neurogaming

It’s only appropriate to start this week’s links with the The Proper Etiquette for Market Panics at the Psy Fi blog. The post is about market panics, and how people behave in them in the face of uncertainty. They end up mimicking others who know even less, and that is one of the reasons of why chaos follows.

Sandip Sabharwal with more thoughts on decoupling – I linked to his earlier post about decoupling too, and this one is a good reminder of that idea, and one of the few things said about decoupling that makes any sense to me.

Business Standard reports that 540 tons of food-grains have been damaged this year – ridiculous, and sad.

Scott Adams writes about the engineer’s investment fund – the idea is that engineers who evaluate products of vendors have insights that other people don’t and this can be a good way to pick stocks. Like his other posts – this is a great thought experiment, and like all experiments you won’t know whether it will work or not until you actually carry out the experiment.

Hemant takes a look at the portfolio of the Indian president!

Here is a list of all the countries with AAA rating from The Big Picture.

Disney seems to have developed a technology called Surround Haptics that can make you feel sensations while you are playing a game or watching a movie. It sounds quite sophisticated and exciting when compared with what you have today.

Finally, this picture of a dog titled My sisters dog. In a couch. Looking british via @picturecool on Twitter.

Enjoy your weekend!

Too emotional, too many stars and far too many jams

Since the crash is on everyone’s mind, let’s start with two posts with one of the most sensible commentator on the stock markets around.

I’ve linked to Roger Nusbaum several times earlier, and I was looking forward to his thoughts on yesterday’s crash as soon as the market closed.

In his typical calm and no – nonsense manner he laid out what I think is one of the sanest posts I’ve read since yesterday.

I think the single most important takeaway from that post is avoiding an emotional reaction to these events, but there are other pretty good points too.

As a follow – up to his post yesterday – he wrote one today about people’s reactions to his post yesterday. My first and only reaction to that was some people just don’t get it. They will blame the government, blame their boss, their adviser, anyone and everyone but themselves. That’s just how the world is, and the only thing you can do is to avoid being that someone.

I can’t find a link to this but there is a new thing I learned from Thursday’s crash. As the market fell, I was amazed to see how even Silver crashed 7.5% and gold was marginally lower.

I was a bit surprised to see silver fall so much, and then I read a WSJ piece that said that hedge funds and other investors who got margin calls had to sell off some part of their silver and gold to come up with cash, and that’s at least partly the cause behind the silver fall.  I have never thought or heard anyone talk about this relation before so that was interesting to hear.

Enough about the crash, now let’s get to some other links.

A brilliant star studded night in the Himalayas. Easily, the most beautiful thing I’ve seen all week. I hope I get to see such a sky for real some day.

Another insightful post from the Psy – Fi blog about how people are affected when they have too many choices, and how having too many options may not be the best idea.

Reuters on a new breed of short sellers who are essentially one person shops researching Chinese stocks, and then selling them short based on their research. It’s a fascinating read.

Ranjan Varma on a MLM scheme that he was offered during a train ride.

Finally, while people in India are wondering when they will start getting 12.00% interest rate on  their fixed deposits – negative interest rates have already become a reality for at least some customers in one US bank. FT Alphaville reports that BNY Mellon has told customers who have more than $50 million lying in their account that they will be charged a fee for that.

That’s right – forget interest, they will have to pay money to the bank!

That’s it for this week – enjoy your weekend!

Debt Ceilings, Biases and Rap Music

The big news in the financial world this week has been the uncertainty surrounding the possible American default, and what looked like a really remote possibility feels more likely now. Since this is such a political issue, it’s hard to read anything about this that is not ideologically influenced.

However, I was able to find one such piece written by Professor Aswath Damodaran who does a fantastic job in explaining what is likely to happen if the American debt is downgraded. This is a good read for anyone who wants to understand this issue and learn about what the implications will be.

Closer home, Indian Express reports that Speak Asia’s COO has been arrested along with 3 others.

Shabbir has some thoughts on my post on who should you listen to. He raises an important question about how do you know when people have biases, and who would you rather listen to – someone who is slightly biased as a result of his stock holding, or someone who has no biases at all, but also, no stock positions and hence no skin in the game at all.

I thought about this question myself while going through Sandip Sabharwal’s critique of the RBI Monetary Policy. My first thought was of course you don’t like this  – if my job depended on how the markets performed, and someone’s policies made the market tank – I wouldn’t like that policy either, but then maybe I’m being too harsh, and finding biases where there are none.

It’s a good post, and definitely worth your read.

Hemant does a good job in writing a detailed post about ETFs.

Some good news – Seth Godin has informed me that all of you are celebrities now. Umm, without the money or the fame of course. But seriously, it’s a good post that takes you through some fundamental changes happening in our lives due to the growing influence of social networking.

Finally, for your entertainment – this rap video about raising the debt ceiling. “Calling up China, Yo we straight out of 20’s!” Hilarious!

Enjoy your weekend!

Best Mutual Funds, Fake Apple Stores and Toilets

First, Anil Kumar Kapila who is a regular commenter here and other finance blogs as well has given some great input to Hemant to create a very good post about selecting the best mutual fund for SIP.

They have put in quite a lot of details in the post, and it’s definitely worth checking out.

Next, BeMoneyAware have a free e-book about basic financial planning that you can download here. You can download this in chapters, or the whole book.

I read the first chapter which is about 19 pages, and learned a few facts about the size of our currency notes, and the number of currencies in the world that I wasn’t aware of.

If you follow me on Twitter – you probably see that I tweet about different kind of numbers fairly often, so I definitely found something of interest in the first chapter.

Have you read about China’s fake Apple stores yet? It’s an incredible read – it seems that some companies have created fake Apple shops which sell real retail products, and they are so convincing that even some of the employees really think that they work for Apple!

Equally amazing are these portraits made of pencil shavings!

Bill Gates has been talking and writing about re-inventing the toilet for quite some time now, and here’s the latest on that.

Finally, the best piece I’ve read this week is the profile of Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, which is the biggest hedge fund in the world.

That’s it for this week – enjoy your weekend!